Summary: The Ministry of Water and Environment routinely develops and disseminates weather and climate information for different sectors including aviation, marine transport, water resources management, agriculture, health, national defence and security, disaster preparedness and other developmental activities to support planning and decision-making for sustainable development.   

By EPHRAIM KASOZI

Government has released the September to December rainfall  forecast projecting near- normal to above – normal rainfall across most parts of the country with warmer than average temperatures.

Near-normal to above-normal rainfall means an area will likely receive an amount of rain that is close to the historical average or higher than usual for that specific time of year

The onset of the rainfall may vary by region but most areas are expected to experience a late start with big rainfall in the period but may extend to January 2027.

Officials say that heavier rains are expected in the central region, Lake Victoria basin, Eastern region as well as some parts of Northeen Uganda while Karamoja and Rwenzori regions are expected to receive little rainfall. They said that the weather conditions are linked to the intensifying El Nino weather conditions and the warming of the Indian Ocean.

“This is therefore the reason government is calling upon everyone to mitigate risks early. Prepare early enough so that everyone can take advantage of a favourable weather conditions,” officials said.

Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Water and Environment said in the statement that the rainfall peak is expected by the end of October to November and that the season is projected to extend up to early January 2027 in most parts of the country.

“The predicted rainfall requires timely action to mitigate risks and take advantage of favourable conditions. This forecast should guide planning in all climate-sensitive sectors to enhance economic resilience and community well-being,” said Dr Okidi adding that the Ministry would continue to provide timely weather updates to guide national and community-level planning and decision-making.

According to the September to December 2026 weather forecast released, for South-Western highland areas of Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Ntungamo, Kanungu, Rukiga, Rubanda, Bushenyi, Rubirizi, Mitooma, Buhweju, Sheema and Rwampara are expected to receive heavy rains starting late October to November with high likelihood of extending to January 2027.

The forecast also indicates that South-western lawland districts of Isingiro, Mbarara, Ibanda Kiruhura and Kazo are currently dry with isolated rainfall in some areas and that the conditions are expected to continue until around mid to late September when stable rains are expected to get established.

“The peak rainfall is expected between late October and mid – November. There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027 over this region. Overall, the region is expected to experience near-normal to above normal rainfall,” reads the statement.

For Rwenzori region, the districts of Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole and Bunyangabu, most areas are currently receiving isolated rains that are expected to continue up to mid to late September when steady rains are expected to set in reaching peak levels by late October to November and projected to extend into January 2027.

The Western areas of Central region in the districts of Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Kasanda, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Lyantonde and Rakai are currently experiencing dry conditions with only a few areas receiving isolated rains and that the conditions expected to persist until mid to late September when steady rains will begin.

“The peak of the rains is expected between late October and November and there is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027. Over all, the region is expected to experience above-normal rainfall,” reads the statement.

The Central and Western Lake Victoria region in districts of Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Kyotera, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba and Mityana is currently experiencing dry conditions with some areas receiving isolated rains and this is expected to continue until mid to late September after which steady rains are anticipated to begin and reach peak levels between mid-October and mid-November.

“There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027. Over all, the region is expected to experience above-normal rainfall,” the government predicted.

In the Eastern areas of Central region including Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga and Buvuma districts, it is dry with a few areas receiving isolated rains and the conditions are expected to persist until mid to late September when steady rains are expected to set in reaching peak levels between mid-October to late November.

Weather specialists say there is a high likelihood that the heavy rains will extend into January 2027.

“The Eastern Lake Victoria basin including Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Namayingo and Tororo districts are currently experiencing isolated rains, with a few areas experiencing dry conditions. These conditions are expected to continue up to mid to late September when stead rains are likely to begin reaching peak levels between October and November. There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend into January 2027 over this region,” reads the projection.

For South-eastern region in Kamuli, Iganga, Bugweri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro and Butaleja districts, many parts are experiencing isolated rains while some areas remain dry.

“These conditions are expected to persist until late September when steady rains are predicted to commence. The rainfall is projected to reach its peak between late October and November over this region. There is a high probability that there rains will continue into January 2027.”

Eastern parts of Kyoga including Pallisa, Butebo, Budaka, Kibuku, Bukedea, Kumi, Kalaki, Kaberamaido, Serere and Soroti is currently experiencing intermittent rains that are expected to continue until mid to late September when consistent and steady rainfall patterns are expected to be established across the region,

“There is a high likelihood that these rains will extend beyond the typical season, possibly lasting until January 2027,” the statement reads.

According to the forecast, Mount Elgon region including Mbale, Sironko, Bulambuli, Manafwa, Bududa, Namisindwa, Kapchorwa, Kween and Bukwo districts are currently experiencing occasional rains with some lowland areas experiencing dry conditions.

“These intermittent rains are expected to persist until mid to late September, when more consistent and steady rainfall patterns are expected to be established across the region. The peak of the rains is expected between mid-October and mid-November and the cessation of the seasonal rains is expected around late December,” the government said.

The weather forecast shows that most areas within the North-eastern region in Amuria, Kapelebyong, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Nabilatuk, Abim, Amudat, Karenga and Kaabong districts are currently experiencing dry conditions with a few areas within the wet belt that is receiving isolated and sporadic rainfall.

“These conditions are expected to persist until late September after which more consistent and steady rains are expected to begin, reaching peak levels between mid-October to mid-November, with cessation occurring around late December. Overall, the region is expected to receive rainfall amounts ranging from near-normal to slightly above-normal for this season.”

Most parts in West Nile districts of Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach, Madi-Okollo, Arua, Koboko, Terego, Maracha, Moyo, Yumbe, Obongi and Adjumani  are currently experiencing occasional rains which are expected to persist until mid to late September when more consistent and steady rains are expected to get established and continue reaching peak levels around mid-October to November. “The seasonal rains are expected to decline and end by late December. Overall, the region is forecasted to receive above –normal rainfall during this season.”

The eastern parts of Northern region in Lira, Kitgum, Lamwo, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole and Dokolo districts are currently experiencing intermittent rains.

“These sporadic rainfall events are expected to continue until late September. Starting from late September, more consistent and steady rains are anticipated to be established across the region. The rainy season is projected to reach its peak between mid-October and November. The seasonal rains are expected to decline and cease by late December.”

In the central parts of Northern region, the districts of Gulu, Omoro, Kwania, Apac, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo are currently experiencing intermittent rains and that the irregular rainfall patterns are expected to persist until mid-September when more stead and consistent rains are anticipated to get established across the region.

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